By Ellie-Rose Davies, Content Executive at IMRG
2024 brought mixed revenue performance, declines in traffic, changes in customer behaviour, and new innovations that shaped the industry – but – what is to come for eCommerce in 2025?
Happy New Year to all! To help us bring in the new year officially, we will be anticipating what is to come for eCommerce this year, with insights from industry experts to help you strategise growth. Read on to hear more on:
- Predictions for 2025
- AI and creative
- AI and search
- Managing risks
- Accurate and valuable data
- Sustainability and fulfilment
Predictions for 2025
IMRG’s prediction for total market revenue growth for 2025 is (drum roll please…)
+1% Year-on-Year!
Considering that online revenue growth was on an upward trajectory in the latter half of 2024, and since September there has been four months of consecutive growth, we believe that things could be looking slightly more positive this year.
We have seen that growth has been more fruitful for mid-market and premium retailers, suggesting that customers may be inclined to spend more on high value purchases now.
The product category that is driving the most growth for the online sector is Health & Beauty, particularly by the subcategories Fragrance and Haircare in the last 4 months (see chart).
We’ll be reporting weekly data as usual in 2025, so visit our Digital Dashboard to stay alert of current trends, on demand.
Joelle Mullin, Partnership Development Director at Awin exclaims, ‘The early drop in inflation in 2025 has sparked optimism among marketers, with positive retail forecasts from an online perspective.’
‘In the first two weeks of January, Awin UK saw a +4% YoY revenue increase, following a +6% growth in 2024 despite tough eCommerce conditions. With a slight dip in borrowing costs and a rise in the pound, these trends may boost disposable income for retail in 2025.’
Joelle reveals that ‘Awin predicts key eCommerce investments for growth this year include Brand Partnerships, Technology Partners (such as Card-Linked Offers, CSS, and Influencers), which proved effective in 2024 and are expected to continue driving online revenue.’ She says that low-risk digital partnerships can also help with boosting CLTV, increasing AOV, and improving CR.
AI and creative
Growing in popularity in 2024, we expect the use of AI and creative to rise further in 2025.
Creative is becoming more important, notes Sam Thompsett, Head of Paid Social at Genie Goals; ‘With automation and AI increasing at unprecedented levels and new campaign types being released across the major platforms, there is less and less control for marketers. In turn really placing the emphasis on one area you do have that control over and a point of differentiation – your creatives.’
Sam says, ‘While it’s long been a buzzword, we expect to see creative to level up over the course of 2025 with leading brands looking at it under a microscope to gain a competitive edge.’
Alexander Otto, head of Corporate Relations at Tradebyte similarly explores how AI will take centre stage and how creatives can use it to their advantage. He exclaims, ‘In 2025, online marketplaces will face mounting pressure as physical retail regains popularity and consumer acquisition costs rise.’
‘To stay competitive, platforms can prioritise curated experiences, leveraging AI-driven personalisation to foster engagement and loyalty. Indeed, AI will play a critical role in driving innovation, powering tailored recommendations, virtual shopping assistants, and interactive experiences.’
Alexander continues, ‘Unified commerce will also emerge as a cornerstone strategy, seamlessly integrating online stores, social channels, and marketplaces to meet shoppers’ expectations for a cohesive experience.’
Kimberly Matenchuk, Managing Director, Image and Video Platform, at Cloudinary further emphasises the value of AI in accelerating creativity, whilst also remainign compliant; ‘Complying with the European Accessibility Act by June 28 will require retailers to make swift changes to their digital properties—and AI will be key. Start by auditing sites and media libraries for non-compliant assets, then use AI to do things like adding and translating captions, optimising videos for soundless viewing, and more.’
Video content remains popular, and Kimberly explores how ‘Brands will increasingly rely on AI to repurpose longer videos into short, platform-specific clips, add captions for soundless viewing, automate the optimisation of each video for each channel, and more—streamlining the process without overburdening their teams.’
Dan Bond, VP of Marketing at RevLifter shares how AI has increased expectations for eCommerce, and shares where true value can be attained:
‘In today’s rocky economic landscape, retailers must make every penny (and promotional tactic) work. They need to focus on efficiency and effectiveness to reduce costs and find growth.’
‘With AI taking centre stage, the expectation to do more with less isn’t going anywhere, nor is the pressure to nail what customers truly value. Forget guesswork; knowing what people are willing to pay and why is a competitive edge. The retailers that will succeed will treat every chance to convert with precision. Efficiency isn’t about cutting corners; it’s about building sharper ones.’
AI and search
AI will also be used to upholster the online search experience. It is enabling more comprehensive search experiences for customers that can actively increase acquisition and conversion rates.
SEO Manager at NOVOS, Katie Mishner, reveals, ‘AI is going to have its moment in 2025. This is an annual prediction, but things are about to be ramped up for eCommerce websites.’
‘Google shopping is changing and utilising AI to create recommendations.
Perplexity has integrated with Shopify to create an AI search and shop system.
GPT Search offers a new way for comparing products.’
AI results and page one rankings on search engines. A strong brand, in addition to an organic acquisition strategy, can help you to start leveraging these new methods of search.’
For Bernd Maehrlein, VP of EMEA at Constructor, ‘ECommerce search has been static for a really long time, and it’s exciting to see paradigms start to get shaken up!’
‘It doesn’t always work, though: Data shows roughly 4 in 10 UK shoppers (39%) find they have to ‘always’ or ‘frequently’ reformulate their queries, so eCommerce search engines ‘get it’ and show shoppers what they want (with an additional 44% having to do this ‘sometimes’).’
‘New AI-powered shopping assistants — like Amazon’s Rufus and other solutions from eCommerce software providers — are emerging to address this pain point and support more conversational search.’
‘The ability to search on retail sites in full sentences is especially helpful when shoppers aren’t entirely sure what to buy. (For instance: ‘I’m looking for a rug for my living room; what should I consider?’ or ‘Help me find a gift for my 8-year-old-nephew who’s really into superheroes.’)’
‘Plus,’ says Bernd, ‘shoppers’ familiarity with GenAI continues to rise: More than half have tried tools like ChatGPT in their daily lives, up significantly from 29% a year ago. It’s natural and important for future-ready retailers to tap into this increased comfort to create better shopping experiences.’
Managing risks around social commerce
There are risks associated with running an online store and embracing the likes of rising trends such as AI and social commerce. How can these risks me managed?
Nikhita Hyett, General Manager EMEA at Signifyd tells us that ‘The rise of social commerce will continue to be a dominant trend in 2025 as retailers leverage agile, hyper-targeted advertising to engage consumers more effectively.’
‘As shoppers grow more comfortable with this channel, it presents significant opportunities to build trust and drive sales. However, this growth also brings risks: fraudsters are increasingly exploiting social platforms to gather data and mimic legitimate retailers, exploiting consumers’ still-developing defences.’
Nikhita recommends retailers to ‘prioritise balancing opportunity with security.’ ‘Implementing risk analysis and fraud detection can help mitigate these threats. By safeguarding brand trust and ensuring secure transactions, retailers can solidify social commerce as a cornerstone of their strategy in 2025.’
Accurate and valuable data
One of the big trends this year will be cleaning data for accurate communication and deliveries, as well as gaining new data to improve the overall customer experience.
Barley Laing, the UK Managing Director at Melissa, recommends for retailers to ‘Use address autocomplete or lookup to collect up-to-date customer address data at the onboarding stage, particularly as it reduces the number of keystrokes when entering an address by up to 81 per cent, which speeds up the onboarding process and improves the whole experience.’
‘Similar technology is available to collect accurate email addresses and phone numbers.’
Barley also says, ‘Running the National Change of Address (NCOA) database against held customer data is valuable, because it highlights customers who have moved or passed away. Having quick access to the new addresses of customers who have changed residence will help retailers to maintain a consistent positive customer experience while improving operational efficiency.’
Additionally, ‘Geocoding technology can help optimise the delivery experience by ‘providing latitude and longitude (rooftop level) coordinates. Using it helps to deliver faster, more accurate deliveries, which provides a standout customer experience and less chance of costly ‘return-to-sender’ issues.’
Sustainability and fulfilment
Sustainability, especially at the post-purchase/fulfilment stage of the customer journey, is growing in importance.
CEO at fulfilmentcrowd, Lee Thompson, says, ‘Sustainability remains at the forefront, with customers demanding eco-conscious options like green logistics and circular returns.’
‘The growth of international markets is another big opportunity, and brands can scale their fulfilment networks to support cross-border demand. Efficiency and precision are key to maintaining customer loyalty. Retailers that prioritise flexible, customer-first fulfilment strategies will be best positioned to thrive this year.’
Marko Kiers, Chief Commercial Officer and Global Returns Management Specialist at ReBound explores how ‘Global eCommerce supply chains have become complex making it difficult to improve sustainability while still meeting customer expectations of speed to market.’
‘Balancing the need for efficient end-to-end returns management with environmental goals requires an approach which considers the variation of local challenges and circumstances.
‘In 2025, more retailers will adopt eco-friendly carriers and optimise return routes to reduce emissions. The use of localised returns hubs, rather than sending an item all the way back to its original location, will reduce unnecessary journeys and make significant strides in evolving towards more circular supply chains.’
There’s lots to anticipate from 2025 – let’s hope it’s a good one!
If you’d like to hear more about ways to optimise performance in 2025, register for our free to attend virtual roundtable.
IMRG revealed their 2025 forecasts. Members can watch on demand here:
Quantitative forecast: Weekly Retail Data Show #213 – IMRG
Qualitative forecast: Weekly Retail Data Show #214 – IMRG
Published 24/01/2025