By Ellie-Rose Davies, Content Executive at IMRG

Black Friday is right around the corner and in this blog, we will help you to manage your expectations and gain insights that will aid your final preparations.

In this blog, you will find:

• When will Black Friday 2024 begin?
• What does IMRG forecast for the 8-day Black Friday week?
• Prevent mistakes early
• Limit chargebacks and fraud
• Provide a good deal

When will Black Friday 2024 begin?

Each year IMRG tracks retailers’ websites to see when their Black Friday campaigns begin. From a sample of 295 retailers, the data shows that campaigns are launching earlier and earlier.

On the chart, you will see three bars highlighted, each that represents the 1^st November. In 2023 (blue bar), 24 more online retailers started their campaign at this time compared to 2022 (yellow bar), and this was 29 more retailers than in 2021 (red bar). From these trends, IMRG predicts that Black Friday will continue to start early in Q4.

Since retailers have started to launch their campaigns early, it has become a customer expectation. As Lee Thompson, CEO at fulfilmentcrowd notes, ‘Black Friday 2024 will see consumers seeking deals earlier (we see this happen every year!).’

Another interesting point to note is that 18 out of the 21 weeks recorded saw an increase in campaign launches, showing that Black Friday was still as significant as ever before last year.

How does Lee from fulfilmentcrowd recommend retailers prepare? He says, ‘Retailers should focus on optimising fulfilment processes to manage higher volumes and ensure stock availability.

‘When it comes to customer experience, post-purchase will play a critical role, with real-time tracking and hassle-free returns becoming key differentiators. Another big trend in CX this year will be the rise of personalised offers and the simplification of checkout processes to reduce cart abandonment.’

‘Last-minute advice?’

‘Be prepared for surges in demand and ensure your technology can handle the spike in orders to avoid delays or outages during peak trading.’ We explore many of these recommendations throughout the rest of this blog!

What does IMRG forecast for the 8-day Black Friday week?

You heard it from IMRG’s Data & Retail Director himself – IMRG forecasts that the 8-day Black Friday week this year will experience a decline, this time of -1%.

Last year, the industry declined -1.9% after our prediction of -2%, suggesting we may know a thing or two about market trends. But as Matthew exclaims, we really hope that retailers can prove us wrong and tell us that they experienced growth!

The reason we anticipate a decline is because most of the year has been difficult for the average retailer tracked in IMRG’s Online Retail Index.

Revenue has been down most months, as has website traffic and conversion. But the decline we anticipate is not so steep as interest rates have been declining and Black Friday falls on the last working of the month, meaning all customers would have been paid and may therefore be more likely to spend with retailers.

If you’d like to learn about Black Friday results in recent years, our most recent Black Friday report will tell you more.

The big question now is: What plans can retailers put into place to ensure they are not one of the retailers that experience a significant decline? Our network of industry experts has some strong advice.

Prevent mistakes early

There are some common mistakes around Black Friday that could result in significant year-on-year declines, and it’s best to be made aware of these now before the busy period starts.

Optimise your inventory

Chris Timmer, CEO at Linnworks shares that ‘Consumers are expecting more than ever this year – fast delivery, flexible options, and seamless service. My advice? Double-check your inventory accuracy and make sure your forecasts align with what’s happening in the market right now.’

He says, ‘Be prepared for any supply chain surprises by having backup plans in place. Using real-time data and automation to reduce manual tasks and mistakes can give you a real edge, helping you stay agile and make smart decisions on the fly.’

Similarly, expert PayPoint recommends that ‘Black Friday generates an annual boom in parcel drop off and pickups throughout the UK, but to set up for success, retailers may want to ensure they optimise inventory ahead of time to accurately forecast demand and avoid stockouts or excess supply.’

PayPoint urge retailers to foreground ‘a more streamlined experience from purchase to parcel,’ fostering positive customer interactions and repeat purchase.

Ensure accurate data capturing

To understand customers, it is important that the information you have on them is accurate.

Barley Laing, the UK Managing Director at Melissa argues, ‘While offering attractive discounts to standout and drive sales is of course important at this time of year, what is equally vital is ensuring customer contact data is clean and up to date.’

‘It’s only with quality data on your customers that you can confidently make learnings on them, via the delivery of a single customer view (SCV), and use this to communicate personalised communications and offers,’ explains Barley.

Barley continues, ‘Also, obtaining accurate address data will ensure delivery is quick, avoiding costly returns. This is vital with fulfilment being one of the most expensive parts of the retail process and because around 20 per cent of addresses entered online contain errors.’

‘However, it’s not only about clean addresses,’ shares Barley. ‘Having access to correct customer email and phone numbers is essential. These channels can be effectively used for repeat business, secondary sales, and customer retention post Black Friday.’

Autocomplete functions at the checkout can help limit mistakes and limit business costs. Asking customers to review their details prior to payment can also help limit unfulfilled orders and errors.

Turn returns into a positive

The topic of returns is also something for retailers to consider when thinking of inventory and customer satisfaction.

Marko Kiers, Chief Commercial Officer at ReBound says, ‘To grow revenue and manage stock availability, retailers can swiftly divert returned items back to shelves. Combined with reconditioning, this approach can help retailers maximise stock while meeting sustainability goals.’

With effective ‘returns and stock management, retailers can thrive during peak periods like Black Friday,’ argues Marko. He encourages retailers to ensure ‘returned items are quickly re-stocked for resale’, which can also make them more efficient at meeting customer demand.

Limit chargebacks and fraud

During the peak trading period, retailers are met with increased chargebacks and fraud which can increase frustration and stunt growth.

Limit chargebacks

Founder and CEO of Chargebacks911, Monica Eaton, describes how ‘post-transaction disputes can negatively impact profits and reputation, quickly swallowing up revenue due to chargebacks.”

Monica reveals that ‘It’s a rising trend that could cause retailers to rack up fees and frustrated customers. This is because with more transactions taking place at this time of the year—especially online—there is more chance of consumers reporting charges from their banking statements as fraudulent to their banks or credit card providers.’

‘My advice to retailers, especially online retailers, is to ship orders ideally within 24 hours, and no later than 72 hours, of order receipt,’ says Monica. ‘Also, I recommend that businesses run test transactions with their own credit cards to make sure the checkout process is seamless, and all systems are operating properly.’

Limit fraud

Black Friday welcomes an influx of fraud, notes Nikhita Hyett, General Manager EMEA, at Signifyd; ‘As Black Friday and Cyber Monday approach, retailers can prioritise a seamless shopping experience without compromising their efforts to mitigate fraud.’

Nikhita says, ‘With increased traffic, the risk of fraud rises significantly, making robust security essential at checkout. Retailers may focus on streamlining payment processes while offering personalised experiences that resonate with shoppers. This year, they need to be especially vigilant against phishing scams, powered by an increased usage of AI, and account takeovers.’

‘By implementing strong fraud protection measures, retailers can ensure secure transactions, reduce cart abandonment, and foster trust with customers.’ Nikhita explores how ‘Prioritising security not only enhances the shopping experience but also helps retailers maximise sales during this crucial peak season.’

Provide a good deal

Customers, as ever, will be on the hunt for a good deal this Black Friday. But it’s important to consider what makes a deal effective, ensuring that you are fulfilling customers’ wants and needs whilst protecting profits.

Consider your promotions

As explored by Maia Wooff, Data Analyst at Summit, ‘With customers shopping around for the best deals on Black Friday, don’t forget that they may also be active on competitor’s sites. Last year, we saw up to 70% of fashion customers who added a product to their basket on Black Friday weekend fail to start checkout.

Maia warns, ‘Don’t give them a reason to leave your site by ensuring ahead of time that any conversion paths on your site are as smooth and painless as possible for users, as well as making sure that your deals are on point as this gets them into the checkout and closer to conversion.’

Dan Bond, VP of Marketing at RevLifter reflects on the value of optimising promotions during the peak season to help streamline the customer journey and boost conversion. He notes, ‘This Black Friday, retailers have a golden opportunity to boost conversions and maximise spend per customer. In a period already famous for discounts, optimising onsite promotions is key to standing out.’

Retailers can ‘clear stock and drive sales effectively by delivering targeted discounts and optimising conversion points.’ Last minute tips? Dan recommends retailers to ‘Monitor visitor behaviour to reduce abandonment – addressing exit signals can make a huge difference. Also, do a Black Friday review to ensure any learnings are noted for the next time big promotions are in play.’

Think about segmented discounts

It also smart to consider providing extra benefits or deals for certain customer segments.

François Rychlewski, VP of sales at SheerID says, ‘We have seen businesses extend more promotional opportunities to win shoppers during this season with gated offers for specific communities like college students, young adults, teachers and healthcare professionals. Gated offers are protected by digital verification, which ensures that the promotional benefit only goes to eligible consumers.’

François continues, ‘This allows retailers to provide unique incentives without risk of margin erosion from typical discounting. In addition, because gated offers are truly exclusive, beneficiaries report a stronger emotional connection to brands who provide them encouraging repeat business in the coming year.’

Use deals beyond promotions

Beyond discounting, retailers can offer other good deals, such as improved delivery options or capabilities around the Black Friday and Christmas period.

Regional CEO at Aramex, Umar Butt, exclaims, ‘From Aramex’s perspective, Black Friday is the perfect time for retailers to leverage targeted campaigns focused on fast, reliable shipping and exceptional post-purchase experiences.’

Umar says, ‘We’re seeing a shift toward personalised marketing and offers tied to delivery options, such as free shipping thresholds or express delivery upgrades. Retailers who highlight their shipping speed and transparency in their campaigns will stand out.’

‘Additionally, campaigns that emphasise sustainability, such as eco-friendly packaging or carbon-neutral shipping, are gaining traction. Last-minute preparations can include aligning marketing messages with logistics capabilities, ensuring that promises made in campaigns can be met with timely, efficient fulfilment,’ shares Umar.